Peak Oil and 9/11: Part 2
Michael C. Ruppert
February 25, 2005
From an August 31, 2004 address before the San Francisco Commonwealth Club
Dick Cheney's Mysterious War-games
|Ruppert's 680-page book contains an 11-page timeline of the 9/11 attacks, 23 pages of declassified government documents, a 14-page index, a three-page glassary of acronyms and 40 pages of footnotes and citations. "Crossing the Rubicon" was published by New Society Publishers on 100% post-consumer recycled paper. www.newsociety.com|
To date, the case that 9/11 was perpetrated solely by Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda has never been proved, even to the most rudimentary standards. In fact, some 35 months after the attacks, there has not been a single successful 9/11 prosecution anywhere in the world. The only conviction that had been secured, a German prosecution against Mounir el Motassadeq, charged with aiding the so called Hamburg cell of Mohammed Atta, was overturned in 2004 because the US government refused to produce key witnesses.
For me, the pivotal evidence absolutely demonstrating direct government complicity in the attacks was found in a number of undisputed, yet virtually unaddressed war-games that were being conducted, coordinated, and/or controlled by Vice President Dick Cheney or his immediate staff on the morning of September 11.
The names of those war-games are known to include: Vigilant Guardian, Vigilant Warrior, Northern Guardian, Northern Vigilance, and Tripod II. All have been reported on by major press organizations relying on undisputed quotes from participating military personnel. They have also been confirmed by NORAD press releases.
All, except for Northern Vigilance and Tripod II, had to do with hijacked airliners inside the continental United States, specifically within the Northeast Air Defense Sector where all four 9/11 hijackings occurred.
According to a clear record, some of these exercises involved commercial airline hijackings. In some cases, false blips were deliberately inserted onto FAA and military radar screens and they were present during (at least) the first attacks. This effectively paralyzed fighter response because, with only eight fighters available in the region, there were as many as 22 possible hijackings taking place. Other exercises, specifically Northern Vigilance, pulled significant fighter resources away from the northeast US -- just before 9/11 -- into northern Canada and Alaska.
In addition, a close reading of key news stories published in the spring of 2004 revealed for the first time that some of these drills were "live-fly" exercises where actual aircraft, likely flown by remote control, were simulating the behavior of hijacked airliners in real life.
All of this as the real attacks began.
Why the Silence Surrounding these War Games?
The fact that these exercises had never been systematically and thoroughly explored in the mainstream press, or publicly by congress, or (at least publicly) in any detail by the so-called independent 9/11 Commission, made me think that they might be the Holy Grail of 9/11. That's exactly what they turned out to be.
Only one war-game exercise, Vigilant Guardian, was mentioned in a footnote to the Kean Commission report and deliberately mislabeled as an exercise intended to intercept Russian bombers instead of a hijack exercise in the northeast sector. Even then, a deliberate lie was told to the American people as NORAD Commander Ralph Eberhart testified to the commission that the exercise actually expedited US Air Force response during the attacks.
An additional non-military bio-warfare exercise called Tripod II, being "set up" in Manhattan on September 11 was under the direct coordination of FEMA and -- by White House directive -- the immediate control of the Vice President. That exercise conveniently placed a fully staffed FEMA, New York City and Department of Justice command post on Manhattan's Pier 29 in time for it to be used as the command post after the twin towers collapsed.
There are many, many areas where the official account and the findings of the Kean Commission are contradicted by hard evidence, official records, mainstream news investigations and even sworn testimony. Both the Los Angeles Times and the New York Times have noted some of the lesser, but no less glaring, inconsistencies.
In my book, I will name Richard Cheney as the prime suspect in the mass murders of 9/11 and will establish that, not only was he a planner in the attacks, but also that, on the day of the attacks, he was running a completely separate command, control and communications system which was superceding any orders being issued by the NMCC, or the White House Situation Room. To accomplish that end, he relied on a redundant and superior communications system maintained by the US Secret Service in or near the Presidential Emergency Operations Center -- the bunker to which he and National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice were reportedly "rushed" after flight 175 struck the WTC's South Tower.
In what are called "National Special Security Events," the US Secret Service is the supreme US agency for operational control with complete authority over the military and all civilian agencies. I will establish conclusively that, in May of 2001, by presidential order, Richard Cheney was put in direct command and control of all wargame and field exercise training and scheduling through several agencies, especially FEMA. This also extended to all of the conflicting and overlapping NORAD drills on that day.
I will also prove conclusively that a number of public officials, at the national and New York City levels, including then Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, were aware that flight 175 was en route to lower Manhattan for 20 minutes and did nothing -- absolutely nothing -- to order the evacuation of or warn the occupants of the World Trade Center. One military officer was forced to leave his post in the middle of the attacks and place a private call to his brother -- who worked at the WTC -- warning him to get out. That was apparently an act of desperation because no other part of the system was taking action.
The Motive Behind 9/11? Peak Oil
|Were some of the "blips" on the FAA's radar screens artifacts created by government hijacking scenarios scheduled on September 11? Credit: FAA|
I turn now to the motive for the [9/11] murders. Peak oil is no secret. Dick Cheney knew about it. His national energy policy development group -- the one that refused to release its records sparking a Constitutional crisis and a Supreme Court ruling -- knew about it.
Oil and natural gas are indispensable to our way of life. The world consumes ten calories of hydrocarbon energy for every calorie of food that is eaten. All commercial fertilizers are made from natural gas. All pesticides are made from petroleum. All irrigation, plowing, harvesting and transport is accomplished by either oil-powered machinery or oil- or natural-gas-generated electricity.
There are between 600 and 700 million internal combustion powered vehicles on the planet and the demand for them is exploding exponentially, especially in China where GM's sales rose 300% in one year alone.
According to the National Geographic ["The End of Cheap Oil," June 2004], there are seven gallons of oil in every tire. Want to suddenly build 600 million new vehicles that run on something else, hydrogen perhaps? How much oil will be required to do that? To mine and melt the ore? To transport it to factories that don't exist, using electricity that isn't there? To make the paints, solvents and all of the plastic needed? All plastic is made from oil.
Hydrogen is a cruel joke that creates false hope. Commercial hydrogen is now made from natural gas. We're nearly out of that, too. China's economic growth has seen it replace Japan as the world's second largest importer of oil and China is now coming into direct economic and political competition with the US for what oil remains.
I have attended two international conferences on the subject of peak oil and its implications for civilization; one in Paris in 2003 and one in Berlin this year. CNN, the BBC, the New York Times, The Economist; dozens of media giants have begun to respond, like a giant ship turning slowly in the water. Looking at just a few [headlines] makes the point well enough.
G7: Oil Price Threatens World Economy -- Moscow Times, April 26, 2004.
What to Use When the Oil Runs Out -- BBC, April 22, 2004.
World Oil Crisis Looms -- Jane's, April 21, 2004.
US Procuring the World's Oil -- Foreign Policy in Focus, January 2004.
The End of the Oil Age -- The Economist, October 23, 2003.
Discoveries of large oil deposits have been in steep decline since 1962. Demand, on the other hand, has been soaring. A study published in Petroleum Review suggests that production might not be able to keep up with demand by 2007. The study is a survey of mega-projects (those with reserves of over 500 million barrels and the potential to produce over 100,000 barrels per day of oil).
The Era of Oil Mega-projects Is Over
Mega-projects are important not only because they provide the bulk of world oil production, but also because they have a better net-energy profile than smaller projects, and they provide a more substantial profit than smaller projects.
Bear in mind that the planet consumes a billion barrels of oil (or two mega-fields) every 11.5 days. The discovery rate for mega-projects has dwindled to almost nothing. In 2000, there were 16 discoveries of over 500 mb; in 2001 there were 8 new discoveries, and in 2002, there were only three such discoveries.
As very little new capacity is set to come on stream in 2007, that remaining 1 mbpd spare capacity will likely disappear before 2008. The irony is that when three new mega-fields come online all at once, the prices may actually drop. That will not change the outcome.
From first-discovery to first-production generally takes about six years. If the new project can make use of existing infrastructure, then the start-up time might be cut to four years. In 2003, seven new mega-projects were brought on stream. 2004 expects to see another 11 projects start producing. 2005 will be the peak year, with 18 new projects expected to be brought on stream in that year.
In 2006, the pace drops back to 11 new projects. But in 2007, there are only three new projects scheduled to begin production, followed by three more in 2008. There are no new projects on track for 2009 or 2010. And any new mega-project sanctioned now could not possibly come on stream any sooner than 2008.
The study points out that currently about a third of the world's oil production comes from declining fields, with a likely overall decline rate of about 4%. As a result, global production capacity is contracting by over 1 million barrels per day every year. New production is the only thing offsetting this decline.
Recent events have clearly demonstrated the fragility of a global production system that is operating at full tilt. Sabotage an Iraqi pipeline one day, and the price goes up. Announce that Vladimir Putin is easing up on Russian oil giant Yukos and the price drops. Announce that Putin is moving to sell of its assets and confiscate its cash, the price soars. Worry that Hugo Chavez of Venezuela might be ousted in a violent coup and the price jumps. Watch Chavez win his seventh election in as many years and the price drops. (By the way, that is more elections than George Bush has won.)
The rush to produce more oil is hastening the destruction of fields that could last longer otherwise. Ghawar, the super-giant of all fields, was discovered more than 60 years ago. It had estimated reserves of almost 100 billion barrels of oil. Professor Michael Klare has told us that, in order to keep pace with accelerating oil demand, the world will have to discover three new Ghawars in the next 10 to 15 years -- just to meet demand.
There was only one Ghawar. There hasn't been another one since. In 2003, for the first time since the 1920s according to a leading petroleum consulting firm, not a single so-called mega-field was discovered.
By 2007, production capacity will have declined by 3-4mn b/d. Yet this decline will be offset by 8mn b/d of new capacity drawn from the many new projects expected to come on stream over the next few years. This leaves a surplus of 4mn b/d in spare capacity. Yet global demand is growing by over 1 mbpd each year. So three years of demand growth will reduce our spare capacity to 1mn b/d by the start of 2007.
So many complaints are being voiced that a major part of the problem with current oil prices has to do with a lack of refineries. There are 18 different grades of gasoline in this country matching various state laws. Why are no more refineries being built?
The answer is simple and it is a direct and irrefutable confirmation of peak oil. It takes 5-7 years and about $150 million to bring a complex refinery online. The cost of the refinery is paid for by the sale of the oil. The refineries are not being built and massive expensive exploration projects are not being undertaken because the oil companies understand that there is very little oil left to find.
Mike Ruppert, a former Los Angeles Police Department narcotics investigator, is the Publisher/Editor of From the Wilderness, a newsletter read by more than 16,000 subscribers in 40 countries. Ruppert is widely known for his groundbreaking stories on US involvement in the drug trade, Peak Oil and 9/11. Ruppert's web site (www.fromthewilderness.com) averages more than 12,000 visitors a day.
A PDF file of the complete speech is downloadable at
See Part 3: The Last Days of the Oil Economy
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